Recently I had my first encounter of the season with an ice rumor. Driving to work on the interstate one morning, I suddenly came upon a line of traffic moving at a crawl.
They had heard the rumor. Somewhere in New England, at some time in the last 48 hours (or perhaps in the next 48), there had been (or would be, or might be) a patch of ice on the road. Not here and not now, but somewhere and sometime.
And for that reason, people had lost their minds.
It was a cold morning, below freezing, and the road was wet, but it was not a bit slippery. I know this because I tested my brakes several times, and when I did, something very predictable happened—I stopped quickly, without sliding. That idea apparently had not occurred to the two people at the front of this jam, who were driving side-by-side in the left and right lanes at—I am not exaggerating—20 miles an hour.
I didn’t really fault the guy in the right lane, for a couple of reasons. First, he was driving a tractor-trailer, and I suppose truckers have to be particularly careful about ice rumors. Second, he was in the right lane, and anyone who didn’t like his speed had a ready solution—to pass him.
Or would have, except for the guy shadowing him in the left lane, who refused to either fall back behind the truck or speed up and pass it. He clearly understood the dangers of an ice rumor better than the rest of us, and he was not about to let us risk our lives. Thus he stayed next to the tractor-trailer, refusing to let anyone pass and creating a mile-long backup, until the trucker got off at Exit 13 and I was able to zip by before the other guy could figure out how to block me. Curiously, only a few drivers joined me—the rest stayed safely behind.
No doubt they guy in the left lane–and his disciples behind him–would have said, if asked, that in conditions like those, you have to be careful about “black ice” (also known as “ice”), which could be present even if you can’t see it—and, in fact, according to superstition, is more likely to be there when you don’t see it. What I would have said in response is that there is an invention known as road salt that melts ice (of any color), and it obviously had been applied.
I also would have made the more general point that in a contest between the hypothetical existence of ice under different conditions and the demonstrable absence of ice under actual conditions, the latter fact wins. This, I believe, is fundamental.
Obviously, not everyone agrees. The majority opinion seems to be that if you can imagine a set of circumstances that might involve a slippery road, you must ignore reality and live in that imaginary world. Following superstition is safer than trusting actual knowledge.
It is impossible to overstate how oddly people behave on the roads in winter. One of my most memorable experiences occurred a few years ago, when I was driving home at night on Interstate 89. It was snowing hard, but it was the kind of light, dry, blowing snow that doesn’t accumulate quickly on a dry road. The right lane had not been plowed in a while and was covered by about two inches of snow, but the passing lane had been plowed a few minutes earlier and was bone dry.
So—everyone was driving in the bone-dry passing lane, right? Wrong. Except for me, everyone–everyone–was creeping along at 30 miles an hour in the snow-covered right lane. Driving 55, I passed—I don’t know—maybe sixty cars over a five-mile stretch of road and never saw another vehicle in my lane. I am still in awe.
I believe I have identified the phenomenon that operates in these circumstances: people see other drivers behaving strangely and think, “They must know something I don’t. There must be a reason they’re driving 30 miles an hour in two inches of snow, when they could be driving as fast as they want on a dry road.” In fact, I suspect it is not even a conscious thought process; people are so accustomed to following the lead of others that it is simply a reflexive action.
Or maybe they had heard a rumor—there was ice somewhere. Not here, but somewhere. This may have been reinforced by the black ice superstition—if you can’t see it, that’s how you know it’s there. Better to drive in snow you can see than to be duped by a road that is only pretending to be dry.
That approach—living by rumor and superstition and never questioning the wisdom of the crowd—is certainly one option. There is another option, which employs the ancient, largely forgotten practice known as “thinking for oneself.” In this practice, when you see people doing seemingly inexplicable things, you examine the facts and base your own behavior on observable reality, rather than abandoning independent judgment and blindly following the crowd. For example, when there is no ice on the road, you don’t pretend there is. You consider that maybe you know something they don’t.
The latter practice, admittedly, is widely considered heretical. It has led people to do things like claim that the earth is round and is not the center of the universe. If you follow it too faithfully, people will think you’re funny.
On the other hand, it can be kind of exhilarating, and you might start to remember what that thing inside your head is for. If nothing else, it could help you get to work on time. It’s not for everyone, but it may be worth a try.
